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After 3weeks of working hard to take IBT exam I`m really happy to say hello everybody, just have been waiting for the result of my exam look for a great grade.
In this post you will read some information about Risk. How much interesting is this field of Finance, of course I have this course last year at university but unfortunately I did not have this kind of info there , just a little about revenue and return and some formulas to count them. Now I hope you can get quite enough information about an important topic in Finance.
Financial risk management is the practice of creating economic value in a firm by using financial instruments to manage exposure to risk, particularly Credit risk and market risk. Other types include Foreign exchange, Shape, Volatility, Sector, Liquidity, Inflation risks, etc. Similar to general risk management, financial risk management requires identifying its sources, measuring it, and plans to address them. As a specialization of risk management, financial risk management focuses on when and how to hedge using financial instruments to manage costly exposures to risk.
To manage risk, you first have to understand the risks that you are exposed to.
This process of developing a risk profile thus requires an examination of both the
immediate risks from competition and product market changes as well as the more indirect effects of macro economic forces.
Every business faces risks and the first step in managing risk is making an
inventory of the risks that you face and getting a measure of the exposure to each risk.
Assume that you run a small business , you work with some mines in Iran exporting their stone to china and sell some of the stones in Iran.
In the process you are approached to a multitude of risks, first the risk of political turmoil in Iran or China that compound by the volatility in the exchange rate. Another risk may be that your colleagues in mines in Iran exposed to some problems such as labor scarcity or some natural happening like an earth quake and many other risks which can your business down.
However in all the situations above you have to do the best to reduce the risks in your firm or company. Now a days many innovations can help you to do the work.
At first obviously you need to have some numbers and parameters in this field, now you can feel that how hard it can be to convert a quality to quantity. Just think about it , you want to convert the risks above to some numbers which helps you solve the problems of having huge risks.
HOW WOULD YOU DO THIS???
It is one of the most important works a economist do by the base of mathematics, if you are a economist or student in economics field you can get the words I say.
Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate).Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the beta of the asset.
Alpha, beta, and R-squared are components of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which is a standard financial and academic method for assessing the risk of a fund, relative to a benchmark. A mutual fund's alpha and beta are calculated in relation to a market index. Each fund is linked to an appropriate index based on its investment category.
Alpha: A measure of selection risk (also known as residual risk) of a mutual fund in relation to the market. A positive alpha is the extra return awarded to the investor for taking a risk, instead of accepting the market return. For example, an alpha of 0.4 means the fund outperformed the market-based return estimate by 0.4%. An alpha of -0.6 means a fund's monthly return was 0.6% less than would have been predicted from the change in the market alone.
Beta: The measure of a fund's or stock's risk in relation to the market. A beta of A% means the fund's total return is likely to move up or down A% of the market change; 1.3 means total return is likely to move up or down 30% more than the market. Beta is referred to as an index of the systematic risk due to general market conditions that cannot be diversified away.
· R-Squared: R-squared ranges from 0 to 100 and reflects the percentage of a fund's movements that are explained by movements in its benchmark index. An R-squared of 100 means that all movements of a fund are completely explained by movements in the index.
Conversely, a low R-squared indicates that very few of the fund's movements are explained by movements in its benchmark index. Thus, R-squared can be used to determine the significance of a particular beta or alpha (the higher the R-squared, the more significant alpha and beta).
Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the range of a fund's performance, and is reported as an annual number. When a fund has a high standard deviation, its range of performance has been very wide, indicating that there is a greater potential for volatility.
· Sharpe Ratio: A measure of a fund's excess return relative to the total variability of the fund's holdings. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the fund's historical risk-adjusted performance.
· Treynor Ratio: A measure of the excess return per unit of risk, where excess return is defined as the difference between the portfolio's return and the risk-free rate of return over the same evaluation period and where the unit of risk is the portfolio's beta.
Morningstar Risk
The fund's performance is examined for the past 36 months. Any months in which the portfolio's returns were less than those of the 90-day Treasury bill are flagged.
Morningstar then adds up the amounts by which the fund trailed the T-bill return and divides the figure by 36, to generate an average monthly underperformance.
Morningstar does the same for the rating group as a whole, and divides the fund's underperformance by the group's underperformance to arrive at a Morningstar Risk score.
To assign ratings, Morningstar subtracts each fund's Morningstar Risk score from its Morningstar Return score. The funds in each rating group are then ranked by this raw number, from highest to lowest. The top 10% of funds receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the middle 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (There is no "zero" star rating—funds with less than 36 months of return data are simply not rated.)
It can be enough in this post for the next post I am going to prepare some information about estimating risk parameters, hedging and….
References:
RISK MANAGEMENT: PROFILING AND HEDGING (Damodaran , Aswath)
http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/finance/mutual/funds-06.html
Hope you nice moments
Leila Aghabarari








